Meloni and the state that does not obey the ballot
Sea arrivals down, returns up, cities still vulnerable: the problem is not only who governs, but the machinery that really governs
After almost four years of Meloni’s government, one question must be asked without pretence: why do many Italians still see no decisive change on urban security, irregular immigration, decay and public order? Giorgia Meloni has been prime minister since 22 October 2022; we are no longer on the eve, nor in the running-in period. Yet in the cities the feeling is often of a country that changes government but not direction.
The laziest answer would be to speak of failure. The serious answer is different: the government has achieved partial results, but has not yet bent the machinery to its will. Sea arrivals as at 30 June 2026 are markedly lower than in the same period of 2025 and 2024: 14,372 against 30,060 and 26,015. Returns are also rising: 4,221 in the early months of 2026 against 3,202 in 2025 and 2,535 in 2024. Real figures, not propaganda. But insufficient to produce a visible transformation in everyday life.
Here lies the political crux. The Italian state is not a lever that moves as soon as a citizen votes. It is a layered contraption: prefectures, ministries, local authorities, technical bodies, offices, specifications, agreements, appeals, interpretations, opinions. The prefect [the government’s territorial representative] represents the government locally and is the provincial public-security authority; senior civil servants, by law, adopt administrative measures and are responsible for management. In other words: politics directs, but the administration executes. Or slows. Or translates. Or neutralises.
Then there is the reception system. It is no longer merely an emergency: it is an established supply chain. As at 30 June 2026, more than 132 thousand people are in the national reception network, across hotspots, centres and SAI [Italy’s Reception and Integration System]. Every place, every service, every management arrangement means contracts, staff, premises, procedures, local economies. You do not dismantle it with a slogan. You dismantle it with audits, short procurement rounds, strict checks, automatic revocations and full publication of costs by operator.
The courts add a further barrier. There is no need to conjure conspiracies: simply observe the mechanism. National judges and the Court of Justice of the EU have intervened on the Italy–Albania protocol and ‘safe countries’, imposing stringent limits on political power over detention and accelerated procedures. The practical result is clear: a law may be passed without thereby becoming immediately effective.
Meanwhile, reported crime has risen again in major urban areas: in 2024, 2.38 million offences were reported, up 1.7% on 2023, with Milan, Florence and Rome highest for reports per 100 thousand inhabitants. Petty crime is not fought with tougher laws alone, but with a visible presence, enforceable expulsions, administrative certainty and accountability at the top of local institutions.
The conclusion is uncomfortable: Meloni has not lost because she has done nothing; she risks losing because she has done too little about the structure that determines whether her decisions become reality. Five moves are needed: measurable annual accountability for prefects and senior officials; a public database on reception and returns; functioning, inspectable CPR [detention centres for returns]; reception contracts revocable on performance grounds; a fast, conclusive judicial track for expulsion orders.
Changing the pilot was necessary. Now the engine must be rebuilt. Otherwise voting remains an elegant ritual, and the state carries on going its own way.